Has the Stock Market Crash Finally Arrived?

[TonyGosling]

FTSE Plummets: Has the Stock Market Crash Finally Arrived?
http://www.dailyreckoning.co.uk/article/ftseplummetshasthestockmarketc rashfinallyarrived0081.html

Is the stock market crash here at last? "Anything that challenges the abundance of global liquidity is a matter of concern," said an Italian fund manager to Bloomberg earlier today. She was commenting on the news just in from Shanghai..

Adrian Ash - Other articles
Wed 28 Feb, 2007

Adrian Ash, watching the 'Crash Warning' flag flap in the wind:

- Is the stock market crash here at last? "Anything that challenges the abundance of global liquidity is a matter of concern," said an Italian fund manager to Bloomberg earlier today.

- She was commenting on the news just in from Shanghai... the news that Chinese stocks dumped 9.2% of their value today.

- The Shanghai & Shenzhen 300 Index had more than doubled in the 12 months to Monday. Today it lost

$107.8 billion of its value amid the the biggest one- day points drop in 10 years.

- Emerging markets to the west have begun tumbling too as the sun peeked over the horizon. Russian commodity stocks have sold off...the Polish market has dropped hard...the JSE in South Africa's lost nearly 2% so far...and the Czech market in Prague has dropped 1.4%.

- "I wouldn't buy [emerging markets]," says Marc Faber, the Hong Kong-based voice of doom. "Something has changed in the financial market: It's the time to sell rallies rather than buy dips."

- By 11am in London today, the MSCI Emerging Markets index stood 1.3% lower from last night. It had touched a record high last Thursday, rising by nearly a fifth in 12 months. But that's nothing. The Chinese stock market had jumped by one fifth during the last nine weeks alone!

- Why the plunging Shanghai & Shenzen? Regular sufferers of The Daily Reckoning will recall what happened to Thai stocks in December last year. The country's military junta imposed a 10% charge on foreign investors. So foreign investors got out, and Bangkok shares lost $23 billion in one day, retreating to levels last seen 16 years earlier!

- Now it's the bureaucrats in Beijing that are coming the heavy with finance. "China's highest ruling body, the State Council, has approved a special task force to clamp down on illegal share offerings and other banned activities in the market", reports Bloomberg. "The group will provide advice on regulations and policy explanations of the securities market."

- Hmmm...a ban on illegal share offerings, eh? If that sounds familiar, you've been reading The Reckoning for too long, gentle reader. For it was this same provision in The Bubble Act of 1720 that brought about the collapse of the South Sea Bubble. New share issues were made illegal in the vain hope that all fresh investment cash would pour into the government's favourite pyramid scheme.

- But alas! Trying to control the mania created by the South Sea Bubble simply caused the Bubble to burst instead. Fast forward to 27 February 2007, and now the Chinese policy wonks are having to relearn the lessons taught to Westminster's idiots in 1720.

- "In the West, one of the warning signs of a possible crash is a period of intense activity in the Initial Public Offerings market," writes William Rees-Mogg on The Daily Reckoning's website, www.dailyreckoning.co.uk "The Chinese authorities have encouraged the development of the I.P.O. market in order to transfer some of the financing of business from the banks to the stock market."

- "Chinese investors only receive a 2% yield on their bank deposits," Lord Rees-Mogg explains, "and are not allowed to send their money abroad, so I.P.O.s are attractive to them. "These new Chinese stock issues have been rationed in the past, but the rationing [had] been eased. So this year, the big Hong Kong companies are looking to China for more favourable issue terms. As a result China may overtake Hong Kong in the total I.P.O. market."

- The sheer size of China's run-up says the crash – whether it started today or was simply announced – will be big enough to scare investors for years to come yet.





In 2006 prices rose 130% after 5 years lagging the world. The price-earnings ratio hit 33, up from 16 in late 2005.

- "Now the Chinese authorities want to bring the Shanghai market under control," William Rees-Mogg continues. "There is talk of a forthcoming editorial in the People’s Daily warning readers against putting more money in the stock market. I am not sure this will work."

- William Rees-Mogg: "Markets do not much like being talked up or talked down, either by bankers or by journalists. J.P.Morgan managed to steer Wall Street through the market panic of 1907, but, after his death, his bank could not prevent the 1929-33 crash."

- If you've got money in emerging markets then beware, gentle reader. And if you've got money in the stock markets themselves, you might want to recall which stocks sink quickest when the air escapes from a bubble.

- Stock in the NYSE Group has already dropped 1.4% in the futures market today. The namesakes of J.P.Morgan just cut their recommendation on the New York Stock Exchange shares from "neutral" to "underweight" – meaning "sell" in plain English – citing the fresh issue of new stock to Euronext shareholders. All told some 110 million shares are being printed to help pay for the NYSE's purchase of the Paris, Lisbon, Brussels and Amsterdam bourses.

- Here in London, meantime, the LSE's stock has more than tripled in the last 24 months. Thanks to repeated bid rumours and takeover offers, the London Stock Exchange now trades on a p/e ratio of 46 times.

- But the stock's dropped 1.5% this morning. More to come? Watch this space...

Regards
Adrian Ash
for The Daily Reckoning

[karlos]

No stock market falls are a normal market correction process.

A good buying oportunity.

www.stelios69.blogspot.com

[brian]

[rodin]

Remember 911...

http://www.nineeleven.co.uk/board/viewtopic.php?p=57428&highlight=#574 28

[Thermate]

What goes up, must come down.

[conspiracy analyst]

[TonyGosling]

http://www.themoneymasters.com/
Just in case it's a crash of Biblical proportions rather than a 'market correction' you might watch The Money Masters to help understand what might transpire..................

The MoneyMasters Part 1 of 2
2 hr 1 min
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1583154561904832383

The MoneyMasters Part 2 of 2
1 hr 35 min
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-529716659023952808

The Money Masters - Part 1 of 2
1 hr 43 min
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8753934454816686947

http://www.themoneymasters.com/

[rodin]

Yes. The Money Masters ıs essentıal vıewıng for all.

I am keepıng a weather eye on the SM & PM charts. I dont thınk the Chına thıng ıs the end of ıt. We could be makıng a bear flag here under a broken 1 year trendlıne. Also note the negatıve dıvergence between MACD and prıce. And another thıng - sılver futures spreads have just wıdened. Anecdotal evıdence thıs but - when they wıden ıt seems TPTB are tryıng to keep buyers out... Sılver manıpulated as are all markets. SEC had fıles o thıs destroyed ın WT7. Its a synergıstıc conspıracy folks!

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=uk%3A ftse100&time=&freq=

Feast of Purım ıs thıs weekend BTW

[rodin]

[mark_e]

[rodin]

[rodin]

Here come the cavalry. After a sharp fall the plunge protectıon team get workıng on Wall St. They conterfeıt money to buy blue chıps vıa Carrıbean offshore entıtıes etc. You can see thıs as Wall st recovers leveraged to other markets.

More money makes gold and sılver go up. Lıke property. Unlıke property gold and sılver do not carry councıl taxes etc. Nor do they need repaıred. My concern for the UK ıs that as the Global economy brıngs us all down to the level of serfs UK cıtızens wıll be serfs wıth hıgh overheads relatıve to 2nd and 3rd world countrıes

[rodin]

All trendlınes are broken. Thıs could be the bıg one. Feast of Purım ıs thıs weekend...

http://gideonz.tripod.com/articles/Purim.htm

IMO the charts look terrıble

[blackcat]

Would not the announcement of the Pentagon's "loss" of two thousand three hundred billion dollars on the evening of September 10 2001 have had a negative effect on the stock market as it opened on 9/11?

[rodin]

This the DOW - Wall Street

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=indu&compidx=aa aaa%3A0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=4&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&state=8&sid=1 643&style=320&time=13&freq=3&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&ra nd=4913&mocktick=1

Now the scale of a move ıs geared to the tımescale of the charts. Here I post a MONTHLY chart - long term actıon. Note the negatıve dıvergence between MACD and pprıce. By that I mean the 2000 peak had hıgher MACD than thıs latest 2007 peak.

What does thıs mean?

The DOW wıll at least half. IMO ıt ıs ın an ırregular ABC correctıon pattern. (3rd)



If I am rıght the next low should be lower than the 2003 bottom.

Of course charts can be manıpulated so be careful.

[brian]

rodin, I take it you are a trader? Came across this today -


The December Low Indicator

It's little surprise that the bulls are doing their best to defend this week's lows. After all, the infamous December Low Indicator is now in play.

According to Stock Trader's Almanac:

"When the Dow closes below its December closing low in the first quarter, it is frequently an excellent warning sign. The December Low Indicator was originated by Lucien Hooper, a Forbes columnist and Wall Street analyst back in the 1970s. Hooper dismissed the importance of January and January's first week as reliable indicators. He noted that the trend could be random or even manipulated during a holiday-shortened week. Instead, said Hooper, “Pay much more attention to the December low. If that low is violated during the first quarter of the New Year, watch out!”
Twelve of the 26 occurrences were followed by gains for the rest of the year – and full year gains – after the low for the year was reached. Hooper's “Watch Out” warning was absolutely correct. All but one of the instances since 1952 experienced further declines, as the Dow fell an additional 10.7% on average when December's low was breached in Q1. Only three significant drops occurred when December's low was not breached in Q1 (1974, 1981, and 1987)."
--------

The December low was 12194

[mason-free party]

sorry no stock market crash...in fact China will rocket on this news

Chinese taxman says no plans for tax on stock earnings


BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - There are no plans to tax earnings from stock trading,
the State Administration of Taxation said.
"The recent rumors that the government is considering changing the tax-free
policy for income from stock transactions are absolutely groundless," an
unidentified official said in a question-and-answer session posted on the
administration's website late Friday.
The official said the authorities had stopped taxing earnings on stock
trading in 1994 in a bid to encourage the development of stock exchanges and
facilitate the restructuring of state-owned enterprises.
The official's remarks follow last week's tumble on Chinese stock markets.
On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 8.8 pct to 2,771.791, in its
biggest drop in a decade, wiping out about 140 bln usd in value.

[Poacher]

It is not unreasonable to expect that a good many fund managers are bright and well informed.

With this in mind, I some will also know that 9/11 was a huge fraud and have calculated that if it were to move from the current position of a growing theory to public knowledge then a massive market correction is on the cards.

I found the recent market correction interesting in that it happened directly after the BBC Building 7 fiasco last week.

While impossible to prove, I feel the China correction was not a big enough event to have caused the correction in the western markets that it did. Mark my words, should there be another large piece of news discovered that knocks the official theory on 9/11 I expect another market 'correction'.

And furthermore. . . try to think how the worldwide stockmarket would react if suddenly there was a huge awakening of knowledge to the events on 9/11. My guess is a market crash of a scale we have never seen before.

[blackcat]

[Poacher]

[rodin]

Or we could be beıng pushed ınto a 1929 meets 1939 type scenarıo by the usual suspects for the usual reasons. I have been studyıng stock charts for some tıme. Just hopıng we fall fast enough so I can cash ın DOW puts.

The fınancıal house of cards ıs quıte extraodınary, made possıble by the leveraged fıat money counterfeıtıng system. The bankers are the house ın thıs casıno called the 'markets'. They make the rules.

Gıve me control of a natıons money and I care not who makes her laws.

So saıd Rothschıld

Rothschıld are major shareholders of the Federal Reserve and BOE and other CBs.

Rothschılds were Ashenazı Jews from Ukraıne (Khazars).

By medıa and money domınatıon they can turn thıs planet ınto a traın wreck whıle they dıstance themselves from the slaughter. Then to come ın a collect easy wınnıngs.

Thus the East conquers the West

or that seems to be the plan?

[Leiff]

[rodin]

[Poacher]

The BOE acts as a company with a board of directors. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/governance/index.htm It publishes accounts - here is the latest set http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/annualreport/2006accounts. pdf There are various charters it runs under http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/legislation/legis.htm

But who appoints the directors?

Interestingly, while the company (BOE) publishes its report and accounts and within the accounts states 'Profit for the year attributable to shareholder = £80m for the last financial year', I can't find anywhere that actually states WHO OWNS THE COMPANY! Does the government own it? If so why is their share holding not listed in the report?

If someone can enlighten me I'd be grateful because on one hand, the government has a charter that ensures 25% of the profit goes back to the treasury. . . but if the government owned the bank then surely they would just take the profit?

Am I missing something here?

[Poacher]

oops. . . it seems the treasury own all the shares of the BOE in trust.

The bank was nationalised in 1946 and the shareholders were paid in government stocks.

However, it is much more significant to note that whilst the Bank of England is now state-owned the fact is that our money supply is once again almost entirely in private hands, with 97% of it being in the form of interest bearing loans of one sort or another, created by private commercial banks.

[TonyGosling]

[TonyGosling]

Who owns the shares in the Bank of England?

I once went into the BoE museum - it' free! - and saw a copy of the act of parliament that nationalised it - it was about three pages long - and didn't seem to be a serious document to me.

This is a fascinating vein of enquiry which those who want to understand financial markets, and who controls them, seem unnervingly dissintersted in

Best film on all this stuff for me is "The Money Masters"


Link

[rodin]

That lınk looks lıke a pıcture of a shell game rıght enuf

[mason-free party]

Chinese market gold rush goes on
By Quentin Sommerville
BBC News, Shanghai



Amateur investors are still flocking to China's brokerages

In crowded trading rooms across China, there's a gold-rush atmosphere.

Even though the volatility of Shanghai's stock market was enough to trigger a global share sell-off last week, it does not seem to have discouraged Chinese investors.

The Orient Securities brokerage in central Shanghai is more crowded than ever.

But cast aside images of Wall Street-style traders. This, like many of China's growing number of brokerages, is a very local affair.

People of all ages are crowded around the terminals, banging away on keypads, one transaction after another. The traders, many of them elderly, shell peanuts,investigate 9/11 or get on with their knitting, in between trades.

When the market closes for lunch, they play cards. In fact, it's difficult to know where the gambling ends and the trading begins, as the room feels more like a bookmaker's than a share dealing room.

The Shanghai Index increased in value by 130% last year, and that's got everyone interested in taking a bet.

"It's not easy," said amateur investor Qin Miaolong. "Sometimes I lose money.

"People like me, who don't know how to trade, lose more money than they make. If you know the market, it's easy. If you don't know the market, you can easily lose more than you make."

'No limits'

It is very easy to set up a trading account. All that is required is a bank account. At the height of the market, as many as 90,000 new accounts are being opened every day across China.

Shares are cheap, only a few pennies - and with the market increasing by as much as 10% some weeks, the returns are viewed as better than anything else on offer.

The market has risen so much, so quickly, there is always the risk it could fall again

James T Areddy, Wall Street Journal

In a room just off the public trading floor, the semi-professional investors are busy trading in bigger numbers. To sit in there, they must have at least 1m renminbi ($130,000) to invest.

Chen Lei is one of the big investors. "For ordinary people, there are not many channels for investment in China," she said.

"Everyone can invest in the stock market, no matter how much money you have, no matter how old you are.

"There's no limitation. All can take part, so people think it's proper to invest in the stock market."

Chinese people have an estimated $2 trillion in their bank accounts. But interest rates are low, so many want to put their money elsewhere.

Government measures to cool the property market have made it more difficult to invest, while prices remain high.

Bubble fears

Many of the traders believe the government wants them to invest in the market, said Mrs Chen.

"China has had a 3-to-5 year bear market. Now Chinese leaders hope the stock market will recover. If the stock market recovers well, it will stimulate the consumption in the rest of the economy," she said.

China's leadership has worried publicly that the stock market was becoming a bubble, that investors were behaving "irrationally", in the words of Cheng Siwei, one of the country's top legislators.


Chen Lei says Chinese leaders are counting on rising share prices

It was partly fears of a government intervention to cool the market - perhaps by charging capital gains tax on share profits - that spooked investors last Tuesday, sending the market 8.8% lower.

The market improved a day later, when the state media made clear that there would not be a tax rise.

"The market has risen so much, so quickly, there is always the risk it could fall again," said James T Areddy, China correspondent for the Wall Street Journal.

"There could be another generation of investors that gets burned, and they would be very upset at the regulators."

China's government has been quick to claim credit for the stock market's earlier success, and to encourage investment. But if it falters again, the growing band of private investors will know who to blame.

[kathaksung]

461. Dollar, the Achilles' heel of the US (1/15/07)

What motivates Bush government so crazy to start a war on Iran? It is the dollar. Because the unrestrained spending, there is a great amount of dollar held by foreign countries, mainly by Japan, China and OPEC. These countries, mostly are "responsible" countries who know the disastrous result if they dump the dollar.

But there is another country: Iran. Iran exports oil. If it changes the oil trading currency from dollar to Euro, then it will hurt US economy significantly. And Iran decides to do so. That's why the Inside group is in panic. Though the flag to war with Iran is "nuclear proliferation", "support Iraq Shiite militias", the real reason is the dollar. But to start a war because others refusing to use your currency as trading method is not a justification, so Bush's war machine tries to find other excuse.

Re: Iran scraps Dollar, takes on Euro

Mon. 18 Dec 2006
Iran Focus

Tehran, Iran, Dec. 18 – Iran's central bank will begin to use the euro for foreign transactions, replacing the long-established dollar system, government spokesman Gholam-Hossein Elham told reporters during his weekly press conference on Monday.

http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=9533
Then on 12/30, there was an interesting news:

Quote, "U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY ARRESTED IN GERMANY
PAULSON AND CHENEY SUBPOENAED BY TRIBUNAL
Saturday 30 December 2006 20:05

U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY SEIZED AND BROUGHT BEFORE 'AD HOC' TRIBUNAL IN GERMANY ON A SUBPOENA HANDED OUT BY THE INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE [OR 'WORLD COURT'] ON CHARGES OF MONEY-LAUNDERING, NON-PAYMENT OF THE WANTA $4.5 TRILLION AND FOR MISAPPROPRIATION AND/OR DIVERSION OF COLOSSAL $ SUMS.

...........

EUROPEAN NATIONAL CURRENCY REVIVAL GATHERS SPEED

One crucial by-product of this crisis, too, is that, as was exclusively reported in our previous posting, both France and Germany have started distributing pre-stored national banknotes (denominated in French francs and deutschemarks) to their respective central banks and leading commercial banks.

http://www.worldreports.org/news/38_paulson_and_cheney_s

Though several days later, there was other news that Paulson would meet the Treasury Minister of Japan in January which indirectly denied the news of his arrest, I still believe this was, or once had been a part of the December plot.

Notice the time of Paulson's arrest: 12/30. The bombing in US was planned in the end of December. At same time Saddam was hanged - a planned justification for Iraq civil war.

Read the news of Paulson's arrest. You will find the real meaning of this incident - a planned collapse of Euro. According to the news, the collapse of the WANTA fund will lead to the collapse of Euro. The events astonished me was that French, German had prepared to replace the Euro with their original currency: Franc and Mark.

I think if the December plot had succeeded, the Great Mall would have been bombed.(and somewhere else in US and UK been bombed as well. ) There would have been a civil war in Iraq followed the execution of Saddam. And there would have been the collapse of Euro following the arrest of Paulson. Iran would have to stay on Dollar because the money they turned on then worth nothing.

I also think the US economy was on a volcano. There are two big bubbles: the housing market and stock market. The Inside group will find excuse to create the incident such like WANTA, Euro collapse, Iraq civil war or Iran war. To blame the economic crisis to other's fault not their's.
There will be big change ahead: war and economic crisis. The victim will always be the ordinary people. They will lose money and lives.