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chrisc
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 Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 8:42 am Post subject: We will see who "looks stupid" |
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| blackcat wrote: | | We will see who "looks stupid" when time has passed and... we revert to cheap and plentiful oil |
Uh-hu... you look really quite stupid already, so much so that it's quite hard to imagine how incredibly more stupid you will look in the years to come... 
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blackcat
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| Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 8:59 am Post subject: Re: We will see who "looks stupid" |
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| chrisc wrote: | | blackcat wrote: | | We will see who "looks stupid" when time has passed and... we revert to cheap and plentiful oil |
Uh-hu... you look really quite stupid already, so much so that it's quite hard to imagine how incredibly more stupid you will look in the years to come... |
Get your fur coat on to combat global cooling / get your sun tan lotion out to protect against global warming. Delete as appropriate.
Fiat currency is good for you!!
It was the Arabs wot dun it!! The Sun said so!!!
Stock up on vinegar dust before the stocks run out! Get your deydrated water in before it runs out!!!
Blah blah blah. Its a piece of cake for your masters when there are those like you around
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"The conflict between corporations and activists is that of narcolepsy versus remembrance. The corporations have money, power and influence. Our sole influence is public outrage. Extract from "Cloud Atlas (page 125) by David Mitchell. |
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Alexander
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James C
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| Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 1:02 pm Post subject: |
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| karlos wrote: | | James C wrote: |
Mmm. Dr Hubbert, the man who invented peak oil back in the 1950's and calculated that it would happen in the States was publicly humiliated and became the subject of many scandals. The oil companies attempted to shut him up for almost 15 years from the time he went public with his findings to the time the peak in the US actually happened. The vilification of Dr Hubbert finally stopped when he proved himself correct.
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Proved himself correct?
Like that stock maket guru Bob Beckman you mean?
Another clown who was wrong 99% of the time. |
Yes he was right. It's a fact. The US peaked in 1970 which is why OPEC became the price barometer instead of the US. Ever heard of the Texas Railroad Commission?
| karlos wrote: | One barrel contains 42 gallons of crude oil. The total volume of products made from crude oil based origins is 48.43 gallons on average - 6.43 gallons greater than the original 42 gallons of crude oil. This represents a "processing gain" due to the additional other petroleum products such as alkylates that are added to the refining process to create the final products.
Additionally, California gasoline contains approximately 5.7 percent by volume of ethanol, a non-petroleum-based additive that brings the total processing gain to 7.59 gallons (or 49.59 total gallons).
So crude is currently £1.50 a gallon. Still cheaper than water. |
So what are you moaning about then? Clearly the NWO is doing a very bad job of manipulating the oil price if it's still cheaper than water.
| karlos wrote: | | 50% of the new build vehicles in Iran, which produces 1,000,000 vehicles a year, are now running solely on LPG. |
Of course they do, they have one of the largest reserves of natural gas in the world. They also want to go nuclear because they are worried about these reserves. You're not denying this is a valid reason are you?
| karlos wrote: | More than half Brazil's cars run on sugar cane ethanol.
The massive hydro-electric dams like the Hoover dam which was built in 1930 produce enough electric for 50,000,000 people.
Brazil has an even bigger dam than the USA. |
Brazil has 3 times the population of the UK spread over a land mass which is 34 times greater than over here. And yet they can only run 50% of the car fleet on ethanol! Makes you wonder how we'd cope to grow the amount we'd need.
| karlos wrote: | The world does not need crude oil at all. But we are forced to use it because we are enslaved by a few people like the Rothschilds and Rockefellers. Who are promoting their peak oil story through their PR departments. And freelancers like James.
They want us to keep using oil. They dont want it to become obselete when so much of it is still underground.
Peak oil is above continued global enslavement. There is more than enough oil to last centuries. And well before then it will be obselete. |
So you say oil is bad, as have I on numerous occasions and yet you claim there are centuries of the stuff left. Your hypocrisy is beyond belief since the oil companies won't stop producing the stuff until it's too hard for them to do so. Why should they listen to you? And when you say there are centuries left then I assume you forget to mention that you believe production rates will continue to rise over this time. Mind you, if there's only 30 years supply left at current rates of extraction and we are finding 2-3 barrels for every 10 we consume then there has to be something wrong with your maths. No wonder the big players like Shell and Chevron are buying back their shares. By 2030, neither will be a public company and may not even exist as individual companies at all. Mergers are on the cards. You can check this out for yourself if you like.
And I know it continues to suit your argument to suggest that I am promoting the use of oil, probably because your reasoning is too weak to stand up without resorting to lying but I'm not the one who is worried about oil use declining: in fact I'm all for it along as it means no wars. It is the man in the street you should worry about for they won't like it when the alternative hits their wallet. |
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blackcat
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| Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 3:56 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Blackcat:you should be shorting the oil company shares if you really believe in what you say - the trend is definitely not your friend though... |
I have no shares and don't want any. The global economic collapse currently being deliberately engineered will make losers out of most shareholders anyway, and only the very rich will profit. It has all happened before. Since the dawn of time all societies have been dominated by a few sociopaths who's greed is limitless and the hoi polloi have been left with nearly nothing. Wars are created by the psychos to consolidate their wealth or steal others and the poor do the fighting and dying. The wars of the 20th century were no different and the current Iraq and Afghanistan fiascos are no different either. When the attack on Iran starts shares will not be anyone's priority and neither will "peak oil".
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"The conflict between corporations and activists is that of narcolepsy versus remembrance. The corporations have money, power and influence. Our sole influence is public outrage. Extract from "Cloud Atlas (page 125) by David Mitchell. |
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Alexander
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| Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 4:06 pm Post subject: |
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I make a living from trading shares and have done so for years - maybe I just channel the ruling elites!
If Iran gets attacked oil goes way higher and oil exploration&production companies not directly affected by the ensuing war will benefit.
I still hope there will be no more wars, mark you - whether for oil or for Israel. |
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blackcat
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| Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 4:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | I make a living from trading shares and have done so for years - maybe I just channel the ruling elites! |
Lots of people make a living from gambling, but for every pound won there is a pound lost. The only ones who really "win" are those who create the pounds (out of thin air!), not the ones who wheel and deal in them. Their pyramid scam has to collapse eventually and the trick is not to get flattened when it does. The 5hit hits the fan any week soon.
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"The conflict between corporations and activists is that of narcolepsy versus remembrance. The corporations have money, power and influence. Our sole influence is public outrage. Extract from "Cloud Atlas (page 125) by David Mitchell. |
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karlos
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| Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 4:36 pm Post subject: |
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Alexander - what shares do you recommend at the moment?
I think ITV is a screaming buy at the moment. There is ongoing consolidation in the telecoms sector with C&W looking to invest the cash pile in others such as Thus. Banking stocks after the rights issues look to be good value.
Mining stocks look very toppy because profits and growth has already been factored into the price.
The oils always make money.When oil is cheap they make more money downstream in retailing or refining. When oil is expensive they revalue their assets and make more upstream.
But i disagree about small mining stacks. Never have i known these to make anything. I remember i did make something out of Cluff a few years back. But by and large small miners get the worst locations to prospect. Maybe one of of 20 will turn in a profit and then will get snapped up by the big boys. All the others are losers.
Small oil can be exactly the same. Remember Desire petroleum?
But as Blackcat correctly says, when Iran is attacked by Israel, and our government steps in to support them, all stock prices will fall inclding oils.
Peak oil theory will not matter in the slightest.
As an example. Why is it the T Boone Pickens and other oil billionaires are the ones talking about peak oil?
Isnt that rather like McDonalds talking about peak beef.
People are weaning themselves off oil. They are selling bio diesel reactors for people to use at home for £1500. But even without this many people are adding plain cooking oil to their fuel tanks in a 50/50 mix with regular diesel and finding their vans run fine.
So the peak in oil consumption is fast approaching from when there will be a steep decline. This is what the big boys are really worried about.
Diesel is £1 a litre in EIRE and £1.30 a litre here. Yet Britain is a net producer of oil. Peak Oil has nothing to do with this. When are you guys going to start campaigning for Peak Tax?
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Alexander
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| Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 5:45 pm Post subject: |
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I have the moved the great majority of my funds into resource stocks over the last year and have about 10% invested in physical gold.
I like oil stocks - am sitting on healthy profits in NightHawk, Afren, Solana, Genesis, Ramco. A few like Premier, Dragon, Maple have pulled back lately but I expect them to resume their upward trend again soon.
Holding quite a few coal stocks - Coal of Africa, New World Resources, Churchill, Coal International, Cambrium, Energybuild.
Other mining stocks I hold include Eurasian, Aricom, Kenmare, Discovery Metals, Platinum Australia, Ridge Mining.
Gold/Silver stocks have been doing very poorly but I do hold quite a lot of them - Hochschild, Hambledon, Mercator, Ariana, Minera, Mariana, Greatland and a few more.
Don't like any other sectors at the moment.
Peter Schiff(I don't know if he is any relation to Jacob) is worth reading/listening to at http://www.europac.net/
His predictions have been amazingly accurate over the last decade.
PS Desire Petroleum has been having a great run lately as have all the Falkland Island explorers...
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=uk%3Ad es&sid=0&o_symb=uk%3Ades&freq=1&time=8 |
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karlos
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| Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 9:33 pm Post subject: |
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thanks
i will check them out
what would you say was your top pick?
personally i prefer liquid stocks because the trading spread on small caps can be a killer
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Alexander
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| Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 10:08 pm Post subject: |
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| Nighthawk or Afren I think. They're both consolidating on the chart at the moment but I expect they will do well long term. |
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Mark Gobell
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| Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 7:18 am Post subject: |
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Guardian headline: Demand, not speculation, at heart of oil shock, says Brown
Alternative headline: BoIIcoks says Opec President
· PM urges producers to put profits into renewables
· Opec blames markets for causing surge in costs
* Patrick Wintour in Jeddah
* The Guardian,
* Monday June 23, 2008
Gordon Brown clashed with leading oil-producing nations yesterday, insisting that surging demand from the developing world rather than speculative pressures was driving up oil prices and creating an oil crisis to match those of the 1970s.
Brown had flown to Jeddah to attend a one-day oil summit of producers and consumers convened by Saudi Arabia, saying it was the duty of world leaders to address the biggest crisis facing the world.
In his speech, Brown offered a long-term deal whereby the oil-consuming nations would diversify energy supplies, moving into nuclear and renewables, and the oil-producing countries would increase production, as well as recycle some of their huge profits into western renewable technologies. Brown has stated that oil producers have earned $3tn in extra profits from the latest oil shock. He also revealed Britain will host a follow-up summit in London, to build the shared analysis of what he described as the biggest problem of the world. The meeting will probably be held in October.
Brown told the conference that in the short term there was a clear need for extra oil production. "All of us need credible future commitments on increased oil supply because, even with the further action we propose to tackle climate change, demand for oil will continue to be strong over the medium term," he said.
He claimed the new deal between nations he is suggesting could bring an end to "the zero sum game between producers and consumers" from which no one would benefit. He insists the world has to address not just short-term under-production of oil, but the long-term boom in demand likely to come from China and India, a surge that requires the west to look for new sources of secure energy.
But Brown's analysis of the causes of record oil costs was at odds with the Opec president, Chakib Khelil, who reiterated his view opposing increased production, saying "the price is disconnected from fundamentals" of supply and demand.
"We believe that the market is in equilibrium. The price is disconnected from fundamentals. It is not a problem of supply."
The Indian finance minister, Palaniappan Chidambaram, agreed, saying producers and consumers should "wrest control" of trading by agreeing to restrict prices.
"Surely demand and supply cannot explain what has happened over the last 12 months," he said. "Oil prices were $70 a barrel in August 2007 and how is it that they've doubled when there has been no dramatic change in demand?"
But in the increasingly divisive debate on the cause of the quadrupling of oil prices since 2000, Brown has support from the US and at least some Opec members, notably Saudi Arabia. The world's largest oil producer realises there is an urgent diplomatic, if not economic, case to increase supply and has announced two big increases in oil production in the past two months, taking its production to the current 9.45m barrels a day.
World production is currently just over 80m barrels a day, and it is estimated there is just over 3m spare capacity at present.
Brown told reporters in Jeddah that over the next few years China will see car ownership grow from 37m to 100m, a further 100 airports will be constructed and 1,000 cities built.
He added: "Anyone looking at it knows there is more demand than supply, and it is the same if you look at future years due to the rise of China, India, Asia, and, equally importantly, the rise in oil consumption in the oil-producing countries from Nigeria to the Arab countries. So, whatever the impact of speculative forces, the real issue, the concrete problem, is how demand can be brought into supply with demand."
Brown said he was willing to examine the impact of speculation - billions of dollars in financial investments in oil by investors hedging against a weakening US dollar - but stressed it was not the predominant source of the crisis.
He said: "We have had the credit crunch, we have had food prices rising very fast, we have had a trebling of oil prices, which is creating a huge amount of stress because of its effect on petrol, gas and electricity and the follow-through to the rest of the economy.
"This is the third great oil shock in three decades, but this is the worst oil shock because of the severity of the rise in price, and the unpredictability and volatility in the markets."
The Saudi summit was seen as a high-risk venture, because, if it fails to convince the markets, there are fears that oil prices already pressing $140 a barrel will rise further this week.
Pointing to the fall in oil production in Nigeria at the weekend, Brown did not suggest that the summit itself will cause a short-term drop in the oil price.
At the talks
Among those present at the conference were:
Prime minister Gordon Brown
Energy minister Malcolm Wicks
Saudi king Abdullah bin Abdul-Aziz
Shell chief executive Jeroen Van de Veer
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/23/oil.saudiarabia
So, in short, even those that are supposed to know about these things are arguing about the cause.
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blackcat
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| Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 9:14 am Post subject: |
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http://www.theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Wee kly/Dollar_Diving
Lengthy article but the following quote says it like it is in my opinion.
| Quote: | | The elitists have driven oil up while metals were suppressed to use it as a suppressive counterbalance against precious metals. This will backfire as everyone exits oil and takes their proceeds into the gold and silver pits. Stark, raving fear and the need for a safe haven from tanking markets and rampaging inflation will take over where oil left off. Resource stocks will greatly benefit from lower energy costs as oil gets tanked to hit the next metals rally, so its time to LOAD UP!!! The bottoms are in and its up, up and away! |
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"The conflict between corporations and activists is that of narcolepsy versus remembrance. The corporations have money, power and influence. Our sole influence is public outrage. Extract from "Cloud Atlas (page 125) by David Mitchell. |
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blackcat
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| Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 10:22 am Post subject: |
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http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/11/12/eco.about.csp/index.ht ml#cnnSTCText
Here is another alternative to fossil fuels which has been known about for years and is cost effective (much cheaper now in fact) but has been ignored. What idiot would believe this kind of thing is overlooked for any other reason than vested interests want it to be so.
| Quote: | All About: CSP
By Rachel Oliver, For CNN
(CNN) -- What if you could provide the world with an endless supply of virtually carbon-free electricity; ensure a constant source of drinkable water to the world's most vulnerable areas; avert some of the world's future humanitarian crises; and save billions of dollars in the process? Certain concentrated solar power (CSP) proponents say there is no "could" about it -- it's more a case of "can."
CSP provider Stirling's dish assemblies soak up the sun at an air force base in New Mexico.
Like photovoltaic systems (PV), CSP relies on the sun to work. But where PV relies on mirrors to directly translate the sun's rays into energy, CSP uses the sun to heat water, or other liquids, to high temperatures, whose resulting steam is then used to drive turbines that create electricity.
CSP is generally accepted to be more cost effective than PV, and more practical, as it can power on throughout the night, without the aid of the sun, thanks to its thermal storage capabilities. (The excess heat is stored as hot liquid, or is transferred to other materials such as molten salt, or graphite, where it can be used throughout the night, or on cloudy days.)
Whereas PV can work on cloudy days, CSP needs direct sunlight -- and a lot of it, which means the only practical places on earth CSP plants can really work are in deserts. Deserts typically attract three times as much sunlight as northern Europe, according to The Guardian. It's why California's Mojave Desert has traditionally been the world centre for CSP, home to the world's biggest CSP plants, and is attracting companies from Australia, Germany, Israel and Spain to set up there, according to Business 2.0.
Proponents of CSP say you don't need to use up much of the desert space to make CSP effective. A solar farm taking up 92 by 92 miles of desert could power the entire U.S., for example, according to Green Wombat, referring to a calculation made by the chairman of solar company Ausra, David Mills.
Over in Europe, however, a group of scientists, politicians and renewable energy experts who call themselves The Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation (TREC) have made claims on a much bigger scale and with far bigger ramifications.
TREC is backing an ambitious project straddling Europe, the Middle East and North Africa (EU-MENA), which is based on the calculation that an area less than 0.3% of the Sahara Desert filled with CSP plants could power the entire region -- and could slash the EU's electricity-generated greenhouse gas emissions by 70% in the process.
The CSP-generated electricity would be transmitted around the region via a "supergrid" of high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission lines. The CSP plants, TREC says, would "generate enough electricity and desalinated seawater to supply current demands in EU-MENA, and anticipated increases in those demands in the future."
One of the byproducts of CSP, waste heat, can be used to desalinate seawater (conversely, it can produce thermal cooling, otherwise known as air conditioning). And this is what TREC believes will make it more appealing for the MENA region, as its CSP project will effectively enable the countries there to avert the kind of crises in the future that people now commonly refer to as the Water Wars.
As the years progress, water supplies will become more of a pressing issue for MENA states in particular. According to Dr Franz Trieb, a scientist with the German Aerospace Center (DLR) (TREC's projections are largely based on DLR research), out of 20 countries analyzed in MENA, just four of them "are well above the threshold ... that is commonly considered as a demarcation line of water poverty".
By 2050, Trieb points out, in addition to suffering economically ruinous oil shortages, the entire MENA region will be facing "a serious water crisis."
One square kilometer in MENA attracts the equivalent amount of energy from the sun as 1.5 million barrels of oil, says Trieb. It is also enough to desalinate 60 million cubic meters of water a year, he says. By providing the EU and "sunbelt countries" with a source of clean energy, MENA gets a guaranteed source of non-oil related energy income in the future -- as well as drinking water.
And this, TREC says, is what will make CSP such a big money saver over time.
Serving the Yemeni city of Sana'a for example, "which is facing the exhaustion of its ground water reserves in about 15 years", CSP-treated water will save the international community billions of dollars in the future, when millions leave their homes for lack of water, it argues. Moving 2 million of Sana'a's citizens to new homes will cost around $44 billion. But it would cost $7 billion to build the CSP plants, which would prevent them leaving in the first place, TREC argues.
According to a speech given by Gerhard Knies, a scientist with DLR, it is not just EU-MENA which could benefit from this type of project, either. CSP could serve 90 percent of the world's population, he says, as 90 percent of us live within 2,500 km of desert (living further away than 2,500 km would result in higher transmission losses and higher costs).
CSP is attracting a list of high profile champions in the field of commerce, including venture capitalist Vinod Khosla. Khosla was one of the early backers of Google, Amazon and AOL and his latest venture is to invest in CSP, according to The Toronto Star. He favors CSP over "clean coal," or Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) produced coal, arguing that CSP plants are cheaper and quicker to build.
He recently told the newspaper: "[Solar thermal is] a great technology, and about one-fourth the cost of PV with the kind of reliability that utilities actually like. We can be cheaper than IGCC coal, even for our first (solar thermal) plants. I'll beat them any day of the week on price, and I'll build them more quickly. I'll challenge anybody with this."
He is not the only one who believes CSP can be as cost effective as fossil fuels. Ausra's Mills also calculates that with 16 hours of storage capacity, CSP could supply "92 percent of [Texas and California's] power at about 8 cents a kilowatt hour -- roughly the current cost of fossil fuel-generated electricity," reports Green Wombat.
The founder of Greenpeace Lebanon, Fouad Hamdan, also argues it makes economic sense when compared with many world politicians' favored solution to climate change -- nuclear energy. Writing in Lebanon's Daily Star, he argues that when comparing nuclear energy and CSP like-for-like on a cost basis, nuclear becomes "economically insane."
"Investing in nuclear is a huge waste of money," Hamdan writes. "Plans to build a CSP in Egypt are estimated at $140 million for 140 MW, or about $1 million per MW. In comparison, the cost to build a nuclear power plant is estimated to be at least at $1.5 billion for 1,000 MW - about $1.5 million per MW."
But despite CSP's obvious selling points, it has many obstacles to get past before it becomes reality. And in what would be the ultimate twist of irony, some of CSP's biggest opponents in the future could in fact be environmentalists.
Earlier this year, CSP industry leader Stirling Energy Systems' contract to supply CSP-generated energy to San Diego Gas & Electric came under attack in the U.S. by local green groups -- because the planned transmission line will plough through a state park and "other environmentally sensitive lands," according to Green Wombat.
But while environmentalists can make things unpleasant, politicians can make things impossible. A small number of media sources have been reporting recently that there is a growing possibility that U.S. Democrats will allow solar and wind energy tax credits and a renewable portfolio standard (which obliges utilities companies to produce a certain amount of their energy from renewable sources) to be stripped from the forthcoming U.S. Congressional Energy Bill. It has the U.S renewable energy industry in a state of panic.
Such a move, The New Republic writes, "would throttle the U.S. renewable industry," with Grist adding it would be "imperiling probably billions of dollars in solar and wind contracts that have been written with the expectation that the production tax credits will lower costs to investors and consumers."
The Solar Energy Industries Association is currently spearheading a campaign to urge as many people as possible to ask their representatives to lobby two key Democrats -- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid -- to keep the Solar Investment Tax Credit extension in the Bill. |
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"The conflict between corporations and activists is that of narcolepsy versus remembrance. The corporations have money, power and influence. Our sole influence is public outrage. Extract from "Cloud Atlas (page 125) by David Mitchell. |
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James C
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| Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 1:52 pm Post subject: |
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| blackcat wrote: | http://www.theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Wee kly/Dollar_Diving
Lengthy article but the following quote says it like it is in my opinion.
| Quote: | | The elitists have driven oil up while metals were suppressed to use it as a suppressive counterbalance against precious metals. This will backfire as everyone exits oil and takes their proceeds into the gold and silver pits. Stark, raving fear and the need for a safe haven from tanking markets and rampaging inflation will take over where oil left off. Resource stocks will greatly benefit from lower energy costs as oil gets tanked to hit the next metals rally, so its time to LOAD UP!!! The bottoms are in and its up, up and away! |
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But metals have gone up by practically the same ratio as oil. Copper is now more than four times what it was 5 years ago, as is oil.
Precious metals are also up over the same time frame. Gold and silver are almost 3 times higher than in 2003. In fact historically, the oil price has been linked with the gold and silver price. Slightly old charts but when adjusted for inflation this is what you get.
Silver/Oil
Gold/Oil
So if oil drops (which it won't do over the long term), gold and silver will follow. |
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karlos
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| Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 2:44 pm Post subject: |
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against the US dollar
why not look at the same graphs in stable currencies like the Euro or the Yen?
Inflation is the falling value of the piece of paper in your pocket
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James C
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| Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 3:56 pm Post subject: |
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| karlos wrote: | against the US dollar
why not look at the same graphs in stable currencies like the Euro or the Yen?
Inflation is the falling value of the piece of paper in your pocket |
Gold, silver and oil are all priced in dollars on these graphs so it makes no difference. This is like for like to show the trend, not the value. |
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Mark Gobell
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| Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 4:03 pm Post subject: |
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So why have precious metals gone up the same amount as oil then ?
Are we entering a peak precious metals phase too ?
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James C
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| Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 4:26 pm Post subject: |
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| Mark Gobell wrote: | So why have precious metals gone up the same amount as oil then ?
Are we entering a peak precious metals phase too ? |
No idea. Historically it has always been the case although oil has gone up by more than five times in 5 years and gold/silver have only increased 3 times or so.
Last edited by James C on Mon Jun 23, 2008 4:31 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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Alexander
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blackcat
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| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 5:38 am Post subject: |
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http://www.marketwatch.com/news/
| Quote: | Gas could fall to $2 if Congress acts, analysts say
Limiting speculation would push prices to fundamental level, lawmakers told
By Rex Nutting & Michael Kitchen, MarketWatch
Last update: 4:24 p.m. EDT June 23
The price of retail gasoline could fall by half, to around $2 a gallon, within 30 days of passage of a law to limit speculation in energy-futures markets, four energy analysts told Congress on Monday.
Testifying to the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Michael Masters of Masters Capital Management said that the price of oil would quickly drop closer to its marginal cost of around $65 to $75 a barrel, about half the current $135.
Fadel Gheit of Oppenheimer & Co., Edward Krapels of Energy Security Analysis and Roger Diwan of PFC Energy Consultants agreed with Masters' assessment at a hearing on proposed legislation to limit speculation in futures markets.
Krapels said that it wouldn't even take 30 days to drive prices lower, as fund managers quickly liquidated their positions in futures markets.
"Record oil prices are inflated by speculation and not justified by market fundamentals," according to Gheit. "Based on supply and demand fundamentals, crude-oil prices should not be above $60 per barrel."
Futures trading in London has not been a major factor in rising oil prices, testified Sir Bob Reid, chairman of the Chairman of London-based ICE Futures Europe. Rising prices are largely a function of fundamental supply and demand, not manipulation or speculation, he said.
"Energy speculation has become a growth industry and it is time for the government to intervene," said Rep. John Dingell, D-Mich., chairman of the full committee. "We need to consider a full range of options to counter this rapacious speculation." It was Dingell's strongest statement yet on the role of speculators.
There has been much discussion recently about how big a role speculators have been playing in the sharp rise in energy prices, though no consensus has emerged on this point.
Dingell introduced a bill on June 11 that would ask the Energy Department to gather the facts on energy prices, including the role played by speculators. See full story.
There are two kinds of speculators in the futures markets, Masters said. Traditional speculators are those who need to hedge because they actually take physical possession of the commodities. Index speculators, on the other hand, are merely allocating a portion of their portfolio to commodity futures.
Index speculation damages price-discovery mechanisms provided by futures markets, Masters added
The committee will likely consider legislation that would rein in index speculation by imposing higher-margin requirements; setting position limits for speculators; requiring more disclosure of positions; and preventing pension funds and investment banks from owning commodities.
Both major presidential candidates have supported closing loopholes that encourage speculation in the energy markets. Read more on Election Blog.
However, other witnesses said that pure speculators have had little impact on energy prices, which have doubled in the past year to about $135 per barrel. Both Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman have dismissed the impact of speculators on prices paid by consumers.
Speculators now account for about 70% of all benchmark crude trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up from 37% in 2000, said Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Mich., chairman of the investigations subcommittee. Stupak introduced a bill on Friday that would limit index speculation.
There has been much discussion recently about how big a role speculators have been playing in the sharp rise in energy prices, though no consensus has emerged on this point.
Congress, however, has grown increasingly concerned over speculative investors' role in the energy market in comparison with those buying futures contracts to hedge against risk from price changes. Lawmakers are expected to consider legislation to set strict limits -- or in some cases, an outright ban -- on speculative trading in energy futures in some markets.
Dingell is looking into any legal loopholes that may have contributed to speculation in energy markets. In 1991, according to documents provided by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to the committee's investigators, the agency authorized the first exemption from position limits for swap dealers with no physical commodity exposure. This began what Dingell said was "a process that has enabled investment banks to accumulate enormous positions in commodity markets."
Is Congress barking up the wrong tree?
Neal Ryan, manager at Ryan Oil & Gas Partners, said that if Congress develops regulations to cut back speculative trading, speculation will just find a new home.
"Speculation is the root of capitalism," he said. "If the speculation is forced out of the U.S. exchanges, it'll simply show up on other exchanges that are OTC like the ICE, or new exchanges will pop up to allow for the spec trades to continue functioning."
Ryan said he does see a reason for Congress to look at eliminating aspects such as allowing West Texas intermediate crude oil futures to trade on foreign markets and the "Enron loophole," but "these exchanges are currently functioning as they are supposed to in a free marketplace."
The creation of a comprehensive U.S. energy policy that tackles issues of increasing domestic supply and reining in consumer demand via conservation should be Congress' focus, Ryan said. "Instead we're on bended knee begging the Saudis to put more oil on the market and talking about shutting down spec trades."
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.
Michael Kitchen is a copy editor for MarketWatch and is based in New York. Nate Becker contributed to this report from San Francisco.
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"The conflict between corporations and activists is that of narcolepsy versus remembrance. The corporations have money, power and influence. Our sole influence is public outrage. Extract from "Cloud Atlas (page 125) by David Mitchell. |
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blackcat
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| Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 6:19 am Post subject: |
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http://www.geotimes.org/june03/NN_gulf.html
Its a few years old but this is an interesting article.
| Quote: | Petroleum geology
Raining hydrocarbons in the Gulf
Below the Gulf of Mexico, hydrocarbons flow upward through an intricate network of conduits and reservoirs. They start in thin layers of source rock and, from there, buoyantly rise to the surface. On their way up, the hydrocarbons collect in little rivulets, and create temporary pockets like rain filling a pond. Eventually most escape to the ocean. And, this is all happening now, not millions and millions of years ago, says Larry Cathles, a chemical geologist at Cornell University.
"We're dealing with this giant flow-through system where the hydrocarbons are generating now, moving through the overlying strata now, building the reservoirs now and spilling out into the ocean now," Cathles says.
He's bringing this new view of an active hydrocarbon cycle to industry, hoping it will lead to larger oil and gas discoveries. By matching the chemical signatures of the oil and gas with geologic models for the structures below the seafloor, petroleum geologists could tap into reserves larger than the North Sea, says Cathles, who presented his findings at the meeting of the American Chemical Society in New Orleans on March 27.
Cathles and his team estimate that in a study area of about 9,600 square miles off the coast of Louisiana, source rocks a dozen kilometers down have generated as much as 184 billion tons of oil and gas — about 1,000 billion barrels of oil and gas equivalent. "That's 30 percent more than we humans have consumed over the entire petroleum era," Cathles says. "And that's just this one little postage stamp area; if this is going on worldwide, then there's a lot of hydrocarbons venting out."
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rest of article at link above.
_________________
"The conflict between corporations and activists is that of narcolepsy versus remembrance. The corporations have money, power and influence. Our sole influence is public outrage. Extract from "Cloud Atlas (page 125) by David Mitchell. |
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Alexander
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James C
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| Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2008 8:51 pm Post subject: |
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Watchdog cuts oil supply forecast
| Quote: | Global oil supplies will grow more slowly than expected over the next five years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted.
Spare capacity in the world system would fall to "minimal levels" in 2013 amid rising demand from developing countries and supply problems, it said.
As a result the IEA cut its supply forecast by 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) to 95.33 million bpd.
Oil prices rose to $142 a barrel after the report and amid market concerns.
In recent days, crude oil prices have pushed to record levels near $144, driven by supply concerns and strong demand in the Middle East and Asia.
Market constraints
Rising demand from developing countries and ongoing supply problems would be the main factors limiting capacity, the energy adviser said in its Medium Term Oil Market Report.
"Structural demand growth in developing countries and ongoing supply constraints continue to paint a tight market picture over the medium term," the IEA report said.
The Paris-based group warned that declining output at maturing oilfields, as well as delays and cost overruns at new sites would lead to lower-than-expected growth in supplies.
Waning reserves among the members of oil production cartel Opec likely to add to the problems, the energy watchdog said.
While consumption would rise by an average of 1.6% a year - or 1.5 million bpd on average - until 2013, supply growth would drop to 1 million bpd from 2010.
In the wake of the report, US light sweet crude rose $2.06 to $142.06, while in London, benchmark Brent crude rose $2.41 to $142.24.
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These were the guys who until recent years were forecasting no problems until 2030 at the earliest but who have now become less optimistic with the data. The head of the IEA, Faith Birol, has presented many downbeat lectures recently and has suggested global supply will become a major problem by 2012. The IEA is a consumer watchdog and not a voice of any government. |
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blackcat
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| Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:07 am Post subject: |
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I can't find the Cold Fusion thread ("search" doesn't work here) so I am posting this article here. Funny it wasn't all over the mainstream media!!!
http://www.newenergytimes.com/news/2008/29img/Arata-Demo.htm
| Quote: | Arata-Zhang LENR Demonstration
By Steven B. Krivit, New Energy Times, May 22, 2008
Yoshiaki Arata receiving Preparata Award in 2007
Photo: S.B. Krivit
OSAKA, JAPAN -- Against a monumental backdrop of bad publicity for cold fusion since 1989, researchers in Japan on May 22 demonstrated the production of excess heat and helium-4, the results of an historic low-energy nuclear reaction experiment.
The mastermind behind the demonstration is Yoshiaki Arata, a highly respected physicist in Japan who has been the recipent of Japan's highest award, the Order of Cultural Merit, and is the first person to have performed a thermonuclear fusion experiment showing large amounts of d-d reactions in Japan.
A lecture by Arata preceded the demonstration before a live audience in Arata Hall (named in his honor) at the Joining and Welding Research Institute at Osaka University. The demonstration took place in the Osaka University Advanced Science & Innovation Center with the help of Arata’s associate, professor Yue Chang Zhang of Shianghai Jiotong University.
Professor Akito Takahashi of Osaka University was an eyewitness to the demonstration.
"Arata and Zhang demonstrated very successfully the generation of continuous excess energy (heat) from ZrO2-nano-Pd sample powders under D2 gas charging and generation of helium-4," Takahashi wrote. "The demonstrated live data looked just like data they reported in their published papers (J. High Temp. Soc. Jpn, Feb. and March issues, 2008). This demonstration showed that the method is highly reproducible."
Takahashi wrote that 60 people from universities and companies in Japan and a few people from other countries attended, as well as representatives from six major newspapers (Asahi, Nikkei, Mainichi, NHK, et al.) and two television stations.
In an earlier conversation with New Energy Times, Arata offered his perspective on "cold fusion" research, which he calls solid nuclear fusion.
"Some people say we have reached the end of science, that there are no more great discoveries that remain. In my view, nature always has more secrets to reveal," Arata wrote. "I always stay on guard not to be too possessed by my own current knowledge. History has shown us repeatedly, for example, the foolishness of denying 'heliocentricism,' which resulted from individuals adhering too strongly to their own knowledge or to what was common sense in the past."
New Energy Times will have a more complete report in the next issue on July 10. |
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"The conflict between corporations and activists is that of narcolepsy versus remembrance. The corporations have money, power and influence. Our sole influence is public outrage. Extract from "Cloud Atlas (page 125) by David Mitchell. |
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AntonH2
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| Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 6:32 am Post subject: . |
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| Been reading trough the discussion, and must say that the pro Peak Oil side is far more convincing than the contra Peak Oil side of the discussion.. |
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blackcat
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| Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 8:47 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Been reading trough the discussion, and must say that the pro Peak Oil side is far more convincing than the contra Peak Oil side of the discussion.. |
Sounded exactly the same in the 1970s too!! Like "Man made global warming", it sounds superficially reasonable which is why it is used so convincingly by the powers that be as a control mechanism. They decide how much will be produced, how much will be revealed to exist, and how much it will cost. They will also ensure alternatives are suppressed to keep us gagging for it. Scam!
Did you read the article on "Cold Fusion" above? Did you see it reported in the mainstream media? Ever wonder why? Just to remind you here is a little extract:-
| Quote: | | "Arata and Zhang demonstrated very successfully the generation of continuous excess energy (heat) ........." Takahashi wrote. "The demonstrated live data looked just like data they reported in their published papers ... This demonstration showed that the method is highly reproducible." |
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"The conflict between corporations and activists is that of narcolepsy versus remembrance. The corporations have money, power and influence. Our sole influence is public outrage. Extract from "Cloud Atlas (page 125) by David Mitchell. |
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AntonH2
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| Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 2:56 pm Post subject: |
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| I don't think that the grassroots Peak Oil movement/campaign is trying to suppress the discovery of new science. I think you confuse things.. |
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blackcat
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| Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:06 pm Post subject: |
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| AntonH2 wrote: | | I don't think that the grassroots Peak Oil movement/campaign is trying to suppress the discovery of new science. I think you confuse things.. |
Just how does my last posting relate to any "grassroots" Peak Oil movement?
| Quote: | | used so convincingly by the powers that be as a control mechanism. |
| Quote: | | Did you see it reported in the mainstream media? |
I think YOU confuse things!
_________________
"The conflict between corporations and activists is that of narcolepsy versus remembrance. The corporations have money, power and influence. Our sole influence is public outrage. Extract from "Cloud Atlas (page 125) by David Mitchell. |
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